Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

Agriculture is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. However, a changing climate has far-reaching impacts on agricultural production and may threaten food security in the fut

Global food security is based on adequate food production and food access. According to FAO, food security is based on "physical and economic access of all people, at all times, to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for an active and healthy life". The main obstacle threatening food security today is food access. Enough food is produced on a global scale to feed the current world population, but more than 10 per cent are undernourished. Climate change could significantly contribute to food insecurity in the future, as it could increase food prices and reduce food production.

Food may become more expensive as energy prices rise in tandem with efforts to prevent climate change. Water for food production may become more scarce due to increased agricultural water use and drought. Competition for land may increase as certain areas cease to be climatically suitable for production. Furthermore, extreme weather events associated with climate change can lead to sudden declines in agricultural productivity, causing prices to increase rapidly. For example, summer heat waves in 2010 caused yield losses in key production regions such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, leading to a dramatic increase in the price of staple foods. These rising prices led to an increase in the number of local populations, providing a thought-provoking example of how climate change is causing food insecurity.

According to studies by the Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), significant climate change has occurred since the 1950s and global average surface air temperature is projected to increase by 0.4 to 2.6°C in the second half of this century (depending on future greenhouse gas emissions). Agriculture and the overall food production system are already a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Further intensification of agriculture in the future to reduce production partly caused by climate change, together with increased demand for animal products, could further increase these emissions. The increase in demand for some products, such as beef, is estimated to increase by 70 per cent between 2005 and 2050.

While increasing temperature and carbon dioxide levels may lead to more favourable conditions for some crops, in some regions, these potential yield increases may be limited by extreme events such as extreme heat and drought, especially during plant flowering. In the 21st century, agricultural production is expected to decline in many regions due to climate changes. Figure 2, which summarises projections of average agricultural yields across all emission scenarios, regions and farmer adaptation, shows the generalisation of this declining trend. Periods of extreme heat (periods of extremely high temperatures) are predicted to become more frequent in the future and pose a major challenge for agriculture. They lead to heat stress in plants and animals, negatively affecting food production. When extremely high temperatures during the flowering period of plants disrupt this critical stage, there may not even be any seeds. In animals, heat stress can reduce yield and productivity and have negative effects on the immune system, making them more susceptible to certain diseases.

Sıcak dalgalarında artan eğilimler ve büyüklükler ve özellikle az gelişmiş ülkelerde orantısız olumsuz etkilerle beklenen sıcak dalgalarının etkisi. Diğer iklim değişikliği unsurları, artan kuraklık vakaları gibi, gıda güvenliği ile ilgili mevcut sorunları şiddetlendirebilir. İklim değişikliği, artan yağış paternlerine dair büyük değişiklikler de beklendiğinde sadece sıcaklık artışları ile sınırlı değildir. Bazı bölgelerin gelecekte daha fazla kuraklıkla karşılaşması beklenirken, diğer bölgeler aşırı yağışlar ve artan sel riskiyle karşı karşıya kalabilir. Kıyı bölgelerinde, deniz seviyelerinin yükselmesi, tarım arazisinin tamamen kaybedilmesine yol açabilir. Daha sıcak iklimler, böcek ve hastalık sorunlarından daha fazla sorun yaratabilir ve belirli zararlıların coğrafi dağılımında değişikliklere neden olabilir. Örneğin, hastalık taşıyıcısı olarak görev yapan böceklerin, gelecekte daha kutup bölgelere doğru göç etmeleri muhtemeldir ve bu hastalıklara şimdiye kadar maruz kalmayan hayvanların bulunduğu alanlarda sorunlara yol açabilir.

Plant responses to different stresses are already well characterised in many plants. Quantifying these responses and determining at which stage of agriculture they are most vulnerable helps to identify the most efficient adaptation strategies. In agriculture, cross-adaptation, which plays a fundamental role in minimising future yield losses, may involve measures that the farmer can take, such as changing crops, changing planting time, changing farming techniques and/or changing irrigation practices. Continuous research is seeking solutions to maintain and/or increase agricultural production under global change. Some agricultural risks from climate change and extreme weather events have been identified and strategies have been proposed to help sustain production. This emphasises the importance of making agricultural improvements to food systems, whether that involves farmers' style of farming, cropping or variety, to restore diversity and increase stress tolerance. Other strategies may include developing pre-determined international responses to food shortages, preventing food price shocks that could impede people's access to food by preventing reductions in food prices.